DR OSCAR REBELLO 27th Jan 2022


Feb 14 2022, there will be a new government elected, but the deceit, the dread, the dacoity, and oh yes democracy ( yawn ) will continue to reign Supreme. 
You can bet your last Rs 10 note on that. 
Everything will change and yet nothing will change.
That's the only guarantee of 2022.
They will claim the Revolution is coming but brace yourself for the disappointment that posts 14 Feb the only revolutions running will be in your bowels.
Let me give you my rusty and jaded thoughts on how I think this election will pan out.
Caveat: I have spent the better part of 2 years cooped up in my covid hen coop, hence my knowledge of the ground scenario is bleak.
But what the hell , commentary is still free in this country right??
So here goes.

1 *BJP*
They have the cocky swagger, the fort Knox level of wealth, and every agency at their disposal.
But notice their wobbly knees. 
They know the ground beneath their feet is shaking 
I still recall in 2012, when I told a senior congress minister that they were in for a thrashing.
The reason I offered was that their solid base, the church, had shifted allegiance to Manohar Parrikar BJP.
As is usual with power-drunk politicians he scoffed at me and said.
Where will you Christians go dotor???
You have only congress as the option
Biblically translated that could be read as "Where will ye sheep go but to the vineyard of Congress Aunty ??"
Well the sheep deserted in 2012 and the rest as they say is history.
The same Broadway show is playing out in the BJP today 
Their base is hopping mad.
I get my inputs from my patients and there is not a single one who doesn't predict a BJP downfall. 
The Cadre is sidelined, the loyalists ( except those who have made a whack ) are out in the cold and the biggest elephant in the room is the deliberate sidelining of the influential Saraswat community from both legislative and party hierarchy.
A Saraswat may smile and speak in dulcet tones and make the right noises but they never ever forget.
So it's like making an apple pie or a blueberry cheesecake 
The base crust has to be firm and it has to hold 
To my limited intelligence, the base crust of the BJP has crumbled 
They are filling it with powerful and perhaps tasty for some Babush cream and Vishwajit cheese and Madkaikar fillings 
But without the crust, the fillings flop and the pie does not get baked.

To my mind, the de facto beneficiaries of the anti-incumbency wave.
For once they played the patient long waiting game, letting all defectors and self servers implode on their own
The plight of Luizinho, Reginaldo, and even my dear dejected friend Yatish is a lesson in question.
The original defectors barring powerful constituency satraps are witnessing a pretty hostile reaction.
This of course does not mean that a Congress - MGP government if it gets formed will get you the land of milk and honey the save goa types dream of.
You can bet that will be another bloody nightmare. 
The savage mining the endless corruption the skulduggery will continue unabated.
Goa is screwed whatever the outcome.

3. *MGP*
The one party that may make the most of anti-incumbency especially where the Congres is weak organizationally. 
Where the Dhavlikar Brothers swing post-poll is for the birds to answer, of course. 

4. *TMC/GFP*
To me, this is pure checkmate.
There is an emotional connection between Goa and Maharashtra
But since when did this illusionary, imaginary emotional connection with Bengal develop??
So yes Derek and Mahua and Didi have been virulently anti Bjp 
But you can't convince me that congress turncoats who have joined TMC and for the last 5 years been flirting with the local BJP are going to cut much ice here 
After PJ ( Pandit Jawaharlal for the uninitiated) it will be PK ( You know who he is ) who will be scratching their chins and saying ajeeb hain yeh Goa ke log
As for GFP, Vijay has been hopelessly out maneuvered. 
He is now standing on half a coconut shell, balancing precariously for his political survival.

5. *AAP* 
My first and only Love 
She has strayed, She has been fickle, She has a not so savory character at the helm of Goa 
But I do hope they pick a few seats.
They have an organization and a Cadre 
They have passion and some zeal left 
They will get a decent vote share
But they will not crack the glass ceiling.
Not yet , at least!!
But how we wish and the rest of you romantic believers can indulge in that wasteful pastime of praying that we get at least some revolutionaries on the legislative benches.
But the agnostic in me tells you this won't happen. 
The same manure will simply be shoveled around.
Game On guys!!!! 
The only absolute certainty is that whatever happens on D day, We the Goans are sure to lose. 
So save those tears
You will need them Feb 14.

The one possibility that is always on the table however is that even if the BJP gets 5 seats they will still form the government by buying and luring and intimidating and the Press will sell us the spiel that , Democracy won after all

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